chalkIQ
Sports prediction and quant signaling. Elo, Monte Carlo, calibration, CLV.
stack: Python, Streamlit, Pandas, The Odds API, ESPN API, Vercel
A college basketball prediction system built on Elo ratings, Monte Carlo bracket simulation, calibration tracking, and closing line value measurement. Evaluated across 1,672 NCAAB games (2025-26 season). Expanding to college football for the 2026 season.
Latest
- 2025-26 season postmortem here.
- Off-season: stripping the dashboard to its core, rebuilding for CFB in late August.
Status
Off-season. Dashboard live at chalk-iq.streamlit.app. Season writeups and model notes tagged #chalkiq.